A recent survey of lumber market participants offers insights into potential market movements, revealing that stability prevails over significant price changes among a minority of market participants.
Key Survey Results
- Price Increase >10%: 7%
- Price Increase 5-10%: 22%
- Price Stability (-5% to +5%): 55%
- Price Decrease >5%: 15%
Most Expect Stable Prices
55% of respondents expect minimal price changes, with prices likely remaining within a -5% to +5% range. This outlook suggests that supply and demand in major markets have stabilised. The timber supply chain has adapted, and industrial demand supports this price stability.
Price Increases Anticipated by 29%
29% of participants predict price increases, with 22% expecting a moderate rise (5-10%) and 7% foreseeing a larger spike (over 10%). Key drivers include ongoing raw material shortages and increasing raw material prices.
Minority Predicts Price Drops
15% of respondents expect prices to fall by more than 5%. These predictions may stem from feared oversupply in the global supply chain and softening global demand.
While stability is the dominant theme for the coming months, regional variations and evolving supply chain dynamics will need to be closely monitored. Traders and industry professionals should stay alert to changes in both domestic and international markets to navigate any potential shifts effectively.
About Timber Exchange's Global Lumber Barometer
The Global Lumber Market Barometer is a monthly survey that gathers insights from over 100+ industry professionals, including many market leaders. Subscribers, visitors, and followers of Timber Exchange, who produce, trade, and buy lumber on an industrial scale, answer the key question: “How do you expect lumber/sawn timber prices to change over the next 3 months in your home market and the primary international markets you trade with?” The first survey was conducted in July 2024, and its results help participants make data-driven decisions in a volatile market.
About Timber Exchange
Founded by a team with deep expertise from industry-leading companies like Stora Enso, Setra, Microtec, and CMA CGM, Timber Exchange was created to address the timber industry’s most critical challenges. With Timber Exchange, it’s now possible to access near real-time global market insights, fully automate the timber supply chain, and prevent quality disputes before they occur.
Serving clients in over 20 countries, including some of the largest names in the industry, Timber Exchange is also advised by senior industry leaders. The company is the proud host of the Timber & Technology Podcast and publisher of the Essential Timber Market Newsletter.
About the Market Data Hub by Timber Exchange
The Market Data Hub is the go-to source for comprehensive global timber market intelligence. Tracking over 250 market indicators—including harvesting, production, inventories, trade flows, consumption, and prices. It provides actionable insights to help businesses navigate the complexities of the global and volatile lumber market.
Explore the Market Data Hub and gain an unparalleled view into the timber market’s future.