The Timber Exchange January Barometer provides fresh insights into the global lumber market, revealing how leading industry professionals anticipate price changes over the next three months. This survey, conducted from January 14th to January 21st, included 100+ senior industry respondents from around the world representing more than 20 million cubic meters in production and purchasing power. The data showcases a significant shift in sentiment compared to the last two surveys.
Key Survey Results
Here’s how the latest survey results break down:
- Price Increase >10%: 23.5%
- Price Increase 5-10%: 48%
- Remain Steady (-5% to +5%): 26.5%
- Price Fall <-5%: 4%
Comparing Trends Across Surveys
Market sentiment has evolved significantly over the last three surveys, spotlighting key trends reflecting industry participants' shifting confidence.
Since summer 2024, the percentage of respondents predicting falling prices has consistently decreased, dropping from 15% in July to just 4% in January 2025. This decline suggests that fears of oversupply and weakening demand are now at an all-time low.
Contrarily, those expecting moderate price increases (5-10%) have grown from being a minority in July 2024 (22%) to forming the majority in January 2025, now representing 48% of global respondents. This shift indicates increasing optimism about market conditions and stronger pricing trends in the months ahead.
Historically, the largest share of participants believed in a stable market outlook, with price stability (-5% to +5%) dominating at 55% in July. Over time, this confidence in stability has substantially eroded, falling to just 26.5% by January 2025, signalling greater uncertainty and anticipation of more dynamic market movements.
These long-term trends emphasise a clear pivot in sentiment: the industry is now more inclined toward expectations of rising prices, with fewer concerns about declines or market stagnation.
Interpreting the Shift
A significant majority of respondents now anticipate price increases, reflecting an evolving consensus in the global timber market. Recent actions like tariffs on timber and transportation challenges have also played a notable role.
For instance, the upcoming imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports (as reported here) has added pressure to already constrained supply chains. In parallel, Canadian sawmills raised production by 7.6% in October (source), potentially softening supply shortages in the short term. However, broader issues such as escalating tariffs and trade barriers with China (source) have contributed to a highly volatile pricing environment.
This convergence of economic pressures has cemented price increases as the dominant expectation in this survey, marking a record level of optimism for rising lumber values.
Final Thoughts
The January Barometer reaffirms that the global lumber market remains in fluctuation, with price increases being the dominant expectation among participants. As Timber Exchange continues to track these patterns, we urge industry professionals to stay engaged and informed to navigate the months ahead with confidence.
About Timber Exchange's Global Lumber Barometer
The Global Lumber Market Barometer is a monthly survey that gathers insights from over 100+ industry professionals, including many market leaders. Subscribers, visitors, and followers of Timber Exchange, who produce, trade, and buy lumber on an industrial scale, answer the key question: “How do you expect lumber/sawn timber prices to change over the next 3 months in your home market and the primary international markets you trade with?” The first survey was conducted in July 2024, and its results help participants make data-driven decisions in a volatile market.
About Timber Exchange
Founded by a team with deep expertise from industry-leading companies like Stora Enso, Setra, Microtec, and CMA CGM - Timber Exchange was created to address the timber industry’s most critical challenges. With Timber Exchange, it’s now possible to access near real-time global market insights, fully automate the timber supply chain, and prevent quality disputes before they occur.
Serving clients in over 20 countries, including some of the largest names in the industry, Timber Exchange is also advised by senior industry leaders. The company is the proud host of the Timber & Technology Podcasts and publisher of the Essential Timber Market Newsletter.
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