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Chinese economists lower GDP forecast to 4.8% amid stimulus challenges

Chinese economists lower GDP forecast to 4.8% amid stimulus challenges

Posted on October 4, 2024 |

Economists have lowered their 2024 GDP forecasts for China due to ongoing economic struggles and efforts to boost growth.

The average GDP prediction by 28 experts dropped from 4.9% to 4.8% after China cut interest rates to help the falling property market.

Out of 25 economists from a previous survey, 16 reduced their growth estimates, while 9 kept their predictions the same.

The GDP estimate for July-September was 4.6%, lower than the 4.7% recorded in April-June and the 4.9% from the same quarter last year.

With 70% of Chinese household assets tied to real estate, falling home prices are negatively affecting consumer confidence.

China’s reliance on manufacturing and exports has weakened, as momentum in these sectors slows down post-pandemic.

Industrial production growth in August slowed to 4.5% year-on-year, down from 5.1% in July.