IMF Raises China's Economy Growth Forecast Amid Strong Q1 Performance

Posted on June 6, 2024   |  

In a recent update, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic growth projections for China, signaling confidence in the country's economic resilience. The world's second-largest economy is now expected to see an expansion of 5% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, marking an increase from the IMF's previous forecasts of 4.6% and 4.1%, respectively.
 

This optimistic outlook follows China's first-quarter data and the introduction of new policy measures by the government aimed at stimulating growth. The forecast for 2024 aligns with Beijing's target of approximately 5%, a goal that seems attainable in light of the current trajectory.
 

Despite the positive revisions in China’s economy, the IMF cautions against complacency, highlighting potential challenges that could dampen economic momentum in the long term. The fund anticipates a gradual slowdown to 3.3% growth by 2029, attributing this deceleration to an ageing population and diminishing productivity gains.
 

The IMF's latest report underscores the necessity for consumer-centric reforms to maintain strong and sustainable growth. It suggests that improving social safety nets and enhancing workers' incomes are crucial steps towards stimulating Chinese consumers to increase their spending.
 

Also, the IMF advises the Chinese government to recalibrate its economic strategy by reducing subsidies and other policies that disproportionately favor manufacturing, to the detriment of other sectors like services.
 

The Communist Party of China has set an ambitious growth target of "around 5%" for the current year. Surpassing expectations, China's economy expanded by a swift 5.3% in the first quarter, contributing positively to the global economic landscape.