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Highest PHSI Since March 2024 — Market on the Rise

Posted on November 8, 2024 |

Pending home sales in the United States increased in September, the National Association of Realtors reported, based on data that also revealed month-to-month increases across all four regions. Data year-over-year was greater in the Northeast and West while flat in the Midwest and South.

The Pending Home Sales Index, which counts forward-looking contract signings, is up 7.4% to 75.8 in September, a high since March at 78.3. During the same time as the previous year, pending sales were 2.6% above year-over-year levels. The PHSI used a baseline of 100 for the level of contract activity during 2001.

In addition, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said that September contract signings have increased while buyers will take advantage of lower mortgage rates and increasing inventory. If the economy continues adding jobs while the rate of mortgage will not hike, then greater gains will be expected in the future.

NAR Economic and Housing Outlook

Lawrence Yun presented the economic forecast, which was expected to have a couple of years of slow home price growth and steady growth of home sales.

Yun said the current home sales have shown to lag from 2023 and into 2024, existing home sales should increase by 2025 to about 4.47 million, while sales will rise over 5 million in 2026. He further said that house price growth would be closer to the Consumer Price Index as supply continues to feed into the market.

Yun predicts that the median price of existing homes will be $410,700 in 2025 and $420,000 in 2026. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to 5.9% in 2025 and then rise again to 6.1% in 2026.

Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown

Regional breakdowns show that in the Northeast, the PHSI rose 6.5% from September to 65.6, 3.3% above the same month last year. In the Midwest, the index jumped 7.1% to 75.0, which was equal to the same month last year.

The South gained 6.7%, reaching 89.0, which was equal to last year. The West had the largest monthly gain, increasing 9.8% to 64.0, which was up 12.3% from the same month last year.

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